{
  "dataset": "forecast-resolution-scorecard",
  "record": {
    "availability": "ok",
    "freshness": "current",
    "coverage": "measurable",
    "headline": "current",
    "failureCode": ""
  },
  "attemptedAt": "2026-09-10",
  "capturedAt": "2026-09-10",
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-10T06:02:24.012Z",
  "measurementAgeHours": 12,
  "staleAfterHours": 36,
  "source": "docs/snapshots/crawlable-live-pulse-2026-09-09.json",
  "license": "https://www.worldmonitor.app/docs/terms",
  "scoreConvention": "Lower Brier and lower log score are better. The published delta is the market Brier minus the forecast Brier, and lower is better, so a negative delta means the market scored better.",
  "headlineCohort": {
    "scored": 180,
    "excludedScored": 310,
    "excludedOrigins": [
      "bet_engine",
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    ],
    "definition": "every scored entry except those whose generationOrigin is listed in excludedOrigins; an absent origin is filed as unknown and is included"
  },
  "pooledPopulations": {
    "calibration": "all-scored-entries",
    "vsMarketSkill": "all-scored-entries",
    "overall": "all-scored-entries"
  },
  "confidenceIntervals": {
    "published": false,
    "trackedIn": "https://github.com/koala73/worldmonitor/issues/7072"
  },
  "horizonProjections": {
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    "trackedIn": "https://github.com/koala73/worldmonitor/issues/7075"
  },
  "scorecard": {
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    "generatedAt": 1789020144012,
    "rollingWindowDays": 180,
    "methodology": "Brier/log score over resolved YES/NO published forecast windows; VOID and pending entries are counted for coverage but excluded from accuracy math.",
    "totals": {
      "entries": 958,
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      "pendingJudge": 96,
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      {
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      {
        "domain": "geopolitical",
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      {
        "domain": "infrastructure",
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        "voidRate": 0.876404,
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      {
        "domain": "macro",
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      {
        "domain": "market",
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      {
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    "byGenerationOrigin": [
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      {
        "generationOrigin": "legacy_detector",
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        "scored": 176,
        "void": 186,
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      {
        "generationOrigin": "state_derived",
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        "scored": 11,
        "void": 67,
        "voidRate": 0.858974,
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      {
        "generationOrigin": "unknown",
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    "calibration": [
      {
        "bucket": "0-10",
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      {
        "bucket": "10-20",
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      {
        "bucket": "20-30",
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        "count": 80,
        "predictedMean": 0.2539,
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      {
        "bucket": "30-40",
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        "predictedMean": 0.351212,
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      {
        "bucket": "40-50",
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        "count": 106,
        "predictedMean": 0.411604,
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      {
        "bucket": "50-60",
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        "maxProbability": 0.6,
        "count": 29,
        "predictedMean": 0.530655,
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      {
        "bucket": "60-70",
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      {
        "bucket": "70-80",
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      {
        "bucket": "80-90",
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        "count": 0
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      {
        "bucket": "90-100",
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    ],
    "vsMarketSkill": {
      "count": 78,
      "forecastBrier": 0.154623,
      "marketBrier": 0.073136,
      "brierDelta": -0.081487
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    "degraded": false,
    "stale": false,
    "error": "",
    "skill": {
      "count": 180,
      "brier": 0.117824,
      "logScore": 0.375127,
      "excludedScored": 310,
      "excludedOrigins": [
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        "state_derived"
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    }
  }
}