OSINT & Methodology
Prediction Market
A prediction market is a marketplace where participants trade contracts on the outcome of future events, and the market price acts as a crowd-sourced probability estimate.
A prediction market is a marketplace in which participants buy and sell contracts tied to the outcome of a future event. Because a contract pays out based on what actually happens, its trading price behaves as a continuously updated, crowd-sourced probability for that outcome.
WorldMonitor surfaces prediction-market context — for example via the get_prediction_markets tool — as an external probability signal to sit alongside its own scenario forecasts, giving a market-implied read on geopolitical questions next to the platform’s analysis.