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Prediction markets today

The most traded Polymarket and Kalshi questions on geopolitics, economics and technology, with the current yes probability, volume and close date, updated live.

What are prediction markets pricing right now?

As of Oct 18, 2026, 9:31 PM UTC, World Monitor tracks 50 Polymarket and Kalshi markets. The most traded is "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" on Polymarket, priced at 15.5% yes with $74.6 million traded.

Current reading

Live reading
Markets tracked50
Volume traded, all tracked markets$471.8 million
The 15 most traded of 50 tracked markets: the price of "yes" read as a probability
QuestionYesVolumeClosesVenue
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?15.5%$74.6 millionJan 1, 2027Polymarket
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?86.5%$45.6 millionOct 29, 2026Polymarket
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?87.3%$40.3 millionDec 31, 2026Polymarket
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?86.5%$36.8 millionOct 31, 2026Polymarket
Iran leadership change by December 31?11.5%$27.6 millionJan 1, 2027Polymarket
Will the Citrini scenario happen?: Yes21%$25.9 millionJul 1, 2028Kalshi
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?11.5%$20.0 millionJan 1, 2027Polymarket
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?17.5%$17.3 millionJan 1, 2027Polymarket
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?81.5%$16.8 millionOct 31, 2026Polymarket
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?12.5%$15.1 millionJan 1, 2027Polymarket
2028 Democratic presidential nominee: Gavin Newsom13%$10.8 millionNov 7, 2028Kalshi
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?13.5%$8.8 millionJan 1, 2027Polymarket
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?24.5%$8.4 millionNov 1, 2026Polymarket
US strike on Cuba by December 31?11%$7.6 millionJan 1, 2027Polymarket
Anthropic IPO before 2027?73.5%$7.5 millionJan 1, 2027Polymarket
Sources: Polymarket (polymarket.com) and Kalshi (kalshi.com). Prices are market odds, not forecasts by World Monitor.

How to read a prediction market price

Each market is a yes-or-no question that pays out if the event happens. The price of a "yes" share, between 0 and 100 cents, is what traders currently pay for it, and is commonly read as the market's probability of the event. Thinly traded markets can move on small orders, so volume is shown beside each price.

Which markets are listed

World Monitor follows geopolitical, economic and technology markets on Polymarket and Kalshi and ranks them here by volume traded. Markets whose titles name sports leagues, entertainment awards or celebrities are filtered out. World Monitor's own scenario forecasts, scored against outcomes, are published separately on the forecast accuracy page.

Related live data

See it on the dashboard

The same data appears in the Predictions view of the World Monitor dashboard, next to the map, alerts and related panels. Other live checks are listed on the live tools page.