Strategic Risk - World Monitor

The Strategic Risk system provides a composite dashboard for global risk triage. Its server-published headline score is a top-5 Country Instability Index (CII) roll-up, while the panel layers additional convergence, infrastructure, theater posture, breaking-news, sanctions, and radiation-watch context around that headline.

Strategic Risk Overview

The Strategic Risk Overview displays the server-side Strategic Risk headline and nearby operational context from the browser panel.

Server Score and Browser Fallback (0-100)

The displayed/server headline score comes from GetRiskScores.strategicRisks[0]. The server derives it from the weighted top 5 CII countries by combinedScore, not from the additive panel context formula:

topScores = top 5 countries by combinedScore
weights = [1.00, 0.85, 0.70, 0.55, 0.40]
weightedAvg = sum(topScores[i] * weights[i]) / sum(weights)
headline = round(weightedAvg * 0.70 + 15)

See CII Risk Scoring Methodology for the exact top-5 window, scale factor, floor, and severity bands. When cached server scores are unavailable, the browser can render a local fallback overview that combines map-side convergence, infrastructure, theater posture, breaking news, sanctions, radiation-watch signals, and the locally available CII summary:

compositeScore =
    convergenceScore * 0.30
  + ciiRiskScore     * 0.50
  + infraScore       * 0.20
  + theaterBoost
  + breakingBoost
  + sanctionsScore
  + radiationScore

Those additive terms are local fallback context, not the server Strategic Risk contract. sanctionsScore is capped at 10 from new sanctions entries, largest-country entry volume, and sanctioned vessel/aircraft counts; radiationScore is capped at 12 from radiation-watch spikes, elevated readings, and corroborated observations, reduced by low-confidence or conflicting observations.

Risk Levels

The browser panel and the server API intentionally expose two related but different level schemes for the same 0-100 headline score. Panel-visible display labels use the same five CII-aligned bands as country risk rows:

Headline score	Panel label	Meaning
>=81	Critical	Active crisis or major escalation
66-80	High	Significant instability requiring close monitoring
51-65	Elevated	Above-normal activity patterns
31-50	Normal	Baseline geopolitical activity
<31	Low	Unusually quiet period

Server/on-wire enum labels remain the three-tier StrategicRisk.level contract returned by GetRiskScores:

Headline score	`StrategicRisk.level`	Meaning
70-100	`SEVERITY_LEVEL_HIGH`	Multiple converging crises
40-69	`SEVERITY_LEVEL_MEDIUM`	Heightened global tension
0-39	`SEVERITY_LEVEL_LOW`	Lower global strategic pressure

API clients should treat StrategicRisk.level as the server severity enum and the Strategic Risk panel label as a display mapping of StrategicRisk.score.

Unified Alert System

Alerts from all modules are merged using temporal and spatial deduplication:

Time window: Alerts within 2 hours may be merged
Distance threshold: Alerts within 200km may be merged
Same country: Alerts affecting the same country may be merged

When alerts merge, they become composite alerts that show the full picture:

Type: Composite Alert
Title: Convergence + CII + Infrastructure: Ukraine
Components:
  - Geographic Convergence: 4 event types in Kyiv region
  - CII Spike: Ukraine +15 points (Critical)
  - Infrastructure: Black Sea cables at risk
Priority: Critical

Alert Priority

Alert priority is separate from the server Strategic Risk High/Medium/Low bands. References to Critical and High CII below use the Country Instability Index country-score bands documented in Country Instability Index.

Priority	Criteria
Critical	CII country Critical band (81-100), convergence has 4+ types or score ≥90, cascade critical impact, high-impact radiation/sanctions signal
High	CII country High band (66-80) or ≥30-point CII move, convergence has 3+ types or score ≥70, cascade affecting ≥5 countries
Medium	CII country Elevated band or ≥15-point CII move, convergence score ≥50, cascade medium impact or ≥3 countries
Low	Minor changes and low-impact events

Trend Detection

Country-level CII rows track approximate 24-hour movement through dynamicScore:

dynamicScore is a signed delta from -100 to 100 against the nearest valid prior CII snapshot.
Positive values mean the score rose, negative values mean it fell, and 0 means stable or no valid prior snapshot.
Trend labels use the server deadband: greater than +1 is rising, less than -1 is falling, and values from -1 through +1 remain stable.

The server-published global StrategicRisk headline is different: it currently sets trend to stable while publishing the top-5 CII roll-up score. If cached server scores are unavailable, the browser fallback computes its own escalating/stable/de-escalating panel trend from local additive context; that fallback trend is a UI continuity signal, not the authoritative server Strategic Risk trend contract.

Pentagon Pizza Index (PizzINT)

The dashboard integrates real-time foot traffic data from strategic locations near government and military facilities. This “Pizza Index” concept, tracking late-night activity spikes at restaurants near the Pentagon, Langley, and other facilities, provides an unconventional indicator of crisis activity.

How It Works

The system aggregates percentage-of-usual metrics from monitored locations:

Locations: Fast food, pizza shops, and convenience stores near Pentagon, CIA, NSA, State Dept, and other facilities
Aggregation: Activity percentages are averaged, capped at 100%
Spike Detection: Locations exceeding their baseline are flagged

DEFCON-Style Alerting

Aggregate activity maps to a 5-level readiness scale:

Level	Threshold	Label	Meaning
DEFCON 1	≥85%	Maximum Activity	Maximum readiness; crisis response active
DEFCON 2	70% – 84%	High Activity	High activity; significant event underway
DEFCON 3	50% – 69%	Elevated Activity	Elevated; above-normal operations
DEFCON 4	25% – 49%	Above Normal	Increased vigilance
DEFCON 5	<25%	Normal Activity	Normal peacetime operations

World Monitor Tension Pairs

The indicator also displays World Monitor tension scores computed independently from GDELT event exports:

Pair	Monitored Relationship
USA ↔ Russia	Primary nuclear peer adversary
Russia ↔ Ukraine	Active conflict zone
USA ↔ China	Economic and military competition
China ↔ Taiwan	Cross-strait military and political pressure
USA ↔ Iran	Middle East regional tensions
Israel ↔ Iran	Direct strikes and proxy conflict
Iran ↔ GCC	Iran against the Gulf states: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman
Saudi Arabia ↔ Yemen	Cross-border attacks, counting every Yemeni actor

Each pair shows:

Current tension score (World Monitor’s normalized score)
Trend (rising, falling, stable), against the pair’s own usual weekly swing
Percentage change: the last seven days against the seven days before them
Evidence, when there is any: up to three non-news readings above their usual level, such as airport closures or military aircraft in the region

This provides context for the activity levels. See the country-pair tension section below for scoring and data-availability rules, and evidence beside the scores for the readings.

Backed by endpoints

Surface	Endpoint	Notes
Pentagon Pizza Index + GDELT pairs	`GET /api/intelligence/v1/get-pizzint-status`	Reads pizza activity and, with `include_gdelt=true`, independently computed World Monitor tension pairs, each with its notable `evidence`.
GPS/GNSS interference	`GET /api/intelligence/v1/list-gps-interference`	Reads normalized GPSJam Redis keys, with optional `region` filtering.
OREF alerts for CII context	`GET /api/intelligence/v1/list-oref-alerts`	Direct RPC for live or history OREF data; see Israel Sirens for the panel relay path.
Security advisories	`GET /api/intelligence/v1/list-security-advisories`	Redis-backed advisory feed used by CII boosts and floors.
Country energy profile	`GET /api/intelligence/v1/get-country-energy-profile`	Country-level energy context for country deep dives and strategic risk analysis.
Energy shock scenario	`GET /api/intelligence/v1/compute-energy-shock`	On-demand country + chokepoint product supply shock.

World Monitor country-pair tensions

Tensions use GDELT event exports, not PizzINT’s GPR scale. The materializer counts both actor directions for the pairs in shared/gdelt-tension-pairs.json: US–Russia, Russia–Ukraine, US–China, China–Taiwan, US–Iran, Israel–Iran, Iran–GCC, and Saudi Arabia–Yemen. A side can be a group: Iran–GCC sums Iran’s events with each Gulf Cooperation Council member (Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman) into one bucket; events between members are not counted. GDELT codes Houthi actors as plain Yemen (YEM), so Saudi Arabia–Yemen counts every Yemeni actor, Houthi or government. US–Venezuela did not meet the initial 20 conflict events/day measurement threshold and is excluded. No GDELT query API is used. A pair added to the list scores Insufficient data until its 90-day history is rebuilt (below), 11 to 22 hours after the worker first runs with it. The day in progress gets no bucket for the new pair, since it would miss the earlier cohorts; that day is rebuilt once it is complete. China–Taiwan, Israel–Iran and Saudi Arabia–Yemen were added together with the fifteen-day hourly window, so the first runs after that deploy rebuild every stored day, newest first. Until the last fourteen completed days have their hours, two to four hours, the existing pairs read from completed days. For each UTC day, conflict intensity is the sum of NumMentions × max(0, −GoldsteinScale) for events in QuadClass 3 or 4. The daily bucket also retains total events, conflict events, and tone sum/count (mean tone is their quotient). Events are assigned to their export cohort’s UTC day. For the last fifteen days, each day also keeps per-hour conflict counts and intensity, so scoring can follow the live feed instead of waiting for midnight. The score is the percentile of the live seven-day mean against the pair’s 90 completed daily intensities. The live mean is the last 168 complete hours divided by seven; an hour is complete once all four of its 15-minute export cohorts are in, so the hour in progress is not counted. If any of the last 336 hours is missing or partial, the pair falls back to completed days: the last seven for the score, and the last fourteen for the change. The percentile is 100 × (days below the mean + 0.5 × days equal to it) / 90. A non-flat history’s maximum scores 100; a flat history scores 50. This measures relative event intensity, not the probability of conflict. The scored seven days (live or completed) must contain at least 140 conflict events (20 × 7). All 90 days must have all 96 export cohorts. Missing or partial days do not count as quiet days. During initial history collection, or when these conditions fail, the stored insufficientPairs lists the pair; the API omits its numeric score and the panel shows Insufficient data. Change is 100 × (last seven days − the seven before) / the seven before, on summed intensity. Live, the two weeks are the last 336 complete hours split at 168, so a surge shows within the hour; in the completed-day fallback they are the last fourteen completed days. Each week holds every weekday once, so the weekend dip in news volume (about 0.7× on Saturdays and Sundays) cancels out instead of reading as a fall. Each pair’s trend threshold is its own usual weekly swing: the 75th percentile (linearly interpolated) of the absolute seven-day against previous seven-day changes over every fourteen-day span in its 90 completed days, never below 10%. The trend rises above the threshold, falls below its negative, and is stable at the boundaries, so a volatile pair needs a larger move than a calm one. A zero preceding week with positive recent intensity has no finite percentage change, so that pair is also withheld. Two zero weeks give a zero change. The independent gdelt:bulk:dyad-tension:v1 snapshot retains 90 completed days plus today’s bucket, with a 92-day TTL and its own replay cursor. Health checks seed-meta:gdelt:bulk:dyad-tension at a 45-minute budget for the 15-minute worker. The API withholds snapshots older than 45 minutes even though history remains stored. Responses that include tensions bypass HTTP caches, and the browser does not retain tension responses for cache fallback. Healthy ingestion does not mean that the 90-day scoring history is ready. The probe stays pending until the first successful data and metadata publication sets its durable activation marker. It then enforces freshness permanently. Pizza outages do not hide available tensions. Each worker run also repairs history. It walks the past days in the window that are missing, lack any of their 96 cohorts, lack a bucket for a pair added after the day began, or, within the last fifteen days, lack complete hours, newest first, and rebuilds up to two of them from that day’s GDELT export files. A rebuilt day replaces the stored day. It is never added to it, so the partial first day of collection counts once. Only days before the replay cursor’s day are repaired, so the live merge never adds to a rebuilt day. The worker downloads a day only when the GDELT master file list names all 96 of its exports, and checks each file against the listed size and MD5. A day with an upstream gap is skipped without downloading it and does not count toward the two. A day whose download or verification fails is recorded in the snapshot’s repairFailures and skipped for six hours, so it cannot hold the run’s slots while older days wait. A later successful rebuild clears its record. The repair has a 60-second budget per run. When the budget runs out, the worker aborts in-flight downloads and starts no new ones. A failure or an overrun keeps the days that finished and never delays or fails the live publication. A run usually rebuilds two days and sometimes one when downloads are slow, so an empty window fills in 45 to 90 runs, 11 to 22 hours.

Evidence beside the scores

The GDELT score measures news coverage. Under a pair’s score, the popup can also show readings from feeds that are not news coverage, when they are above their usual level. They never change the score.

Reading	Pairs (countries read)	Source keys	Current count	Usual level
Reported strikes	Israel–Iran (Israel, Iran); Iran–GCC (the six GCC members); Saudi Arabia–Yemen (Saudi Arabia, Yemen)	`conflict:iran-events:v1`, `conflict:strike-pressure:v1`	Strike reports in the last 72 hours, by the country where they landed	Three times the mean daily count in the strike tally, from its first stored day to the day before the 72 hours; needs 7 days
Airports	US–Iran (Iran); Israel–Iran; Iran–GCC (GCC members and Iran); Saudi Arabia–Yemen; China–Taiwan (Taiwan); Russia–Ukraine (Russia)	`aviation:notam:closures:v2`, `aviation:delays:intl:v3`	Monitored airports closed (a NOTAM closure, or at least 80% of due flights cancelled), with most flights cancelled (at least 50%), or restricted by NOTAM	Mean daily peak in the evidence history; needs 7 days
Military aircraft	See below	`military:surges:history:v1`	One operator’s aircraft in the pair’s theater, in the latest snapshot	Mean of the earlier snapshots from the same ADS-B feed, about six hours; needs 12 snapshots
Chinese military aircraft, Chinese navy ships near Taiwan	China–Taiwan	`military:cross-strait-activity-bootstrap:v1`	Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense daily report, if no more than two days old	Its 90-day median, once that window has enough reporting days
New US sanctions	US–Iran (Iran); US–Russia (Russia); US–China (China)	`sanctions:changes:v1`	Additions to the SDN, Consolidated and Commerce CSL lists naming the country in the last 7 days	Each list’s weekly rate over the earlier weeks its changes were recorded, summed over the lists; needs 21 days

Military aircraft read one operator in one region, so an aircraft is counted once where theaters overlap: US–Iran counts US aircraft and Israel–Iran Israeli aircraft in the Iran theater; US–China counts US aircraft and China–Taiwan Chinese aircraft in the Taiwan theater; US–Russia counts US aircraft in the Baltic and Black Sea theaters; Russia–Ukraine counts Russian aircraft in the Black Sea theater; Saudi Arabia–Yemen counts Saudi aircraft in the Yemen and Red Sea theater. A reading shows when it reaches its floor and is at least 1.5 times its usual level. The floors are 3 strikes, 1 airport, 6 military aircraft, 20 Chinese aircraft, 10 Chinese ships and 3 sanctions additions. A disrupted airport shows before any usual level exists; every other reading waits for one. The popup shows at most three readings per pair and adds the usual level in parentheses. Limitations:

Strike reports place a strike where it landed, not who fired it, and include interceptions and claims. Saudi Arabia belongs to both Iran–GCC and Saudi Arabia–Yemen, so a strike on Riyadh counts for both. The feed covers the Middle East only.
The strike feed keeps only its newest 400 events. When all of them fall inside the 72 hours, older strikes in the window are missing, so the strike reading is withheld until the feed reaches back past the window.
A sanctions list can be skipped for a while (unavailable, or a suspicious snapshot held back). Its changes from that time are never recorded, so that time is left out of that list’s usual rate. A retained gap keeps the last snapshot, and the list’s changes are recorded when it returns, so its time stays in.
The aircraft counts see only aircraft that broadcast ADS-B. No Chinese, Russian or Saudi military aircraft appeared in the six hours of snapshots checked on 2026-10-25, so those readings are usually zero.
Ukraine has no monitored airport. Airport names are English city names.
The strike tally keeps 30 days and began on 2026-10-19; the sanctions log began on 2026-10-18. Until each has its minimum history, strikes and sanctions have no usual level and do not show.

The derived-signals bundle runs scripts/seed-tension-evidence.mjs every 15 minutes. It writes intelligence:tension-evidence:v1 as { updatedAt, live, days }: live holds every pair’s current readings, and days keeps one value per pair, reading and UTC day for 90 days (the daily peak for airports and military aircraft, the latest value for the rest). Strike days are copied from the tally for every day it still holds, so a missed run is repaired. The key has a 100-day TTL. Each source must be within its own health budget (strikes 45 minutes, airport delays 90, NOTAM closures 240, military aircraft 30, Taiwan Strait 720, sanctions 720); a stale or malformed source drops only its readings, and a run with no readings at all keeps the last payload. Health checks seed-meta:intelligence:tension-evidence at a 45-minute budget once the first publish sets seed-activated:intelligence:tension-evidence. The API attaches only notable readings, ignores evidence older than 45 minutes, and serves the scores unchanged when the evidence is missing. News clusters are automatically enriched with nearby critical infrastructure. When a story mentions a geographic region, the system identifies relevant assets within 600km, providing immediate operational context.

Asset Types

Type	Source	Examples
Pipelines	88 global routes	Nord Stream, Keystone, Trans-Siberian
Undersea Cables	98 major cables	TAT-14, SEA-ME-WE, Pacific Crossing
AI Datacenters	Epoch AI registry	Azure East US, GCP Council Bluffs
Military Bases	226 installations	Ramstein, Diego Garcia, Guam
Nuclear Facilities	100+ sites	Power plants, weapons labs, enrichment

Location Inference

The system infers the geographic focus of news stories through:

Keyword matching: Headlines are scanned against hotspot keyword lists (e.g., “Taiwan” maps to Taiwan Strait hotspot)
Confidence scoring: Multiple keyword matches increase location confidence
Fallback to conflicts: If no hotspot matches, active conflict zones are checked

Distance Calculation

Assets are ranked by Haversine distance from the inferred location:

d = 2r × arcsin(√(sin²(Δφ/2) + cos(φ₁) × cos(φ₂) × sin²(Δλ/2)))

Up to 3 assets per type are displayed, sorted by proximity.

Example Context

A news cluster about “pipeline explosion in Germany” would show:

Pipelines: Nord Stream (23km), Yamal-Europe (156km)
Cables: TAT-14 landing (89km)
Bases: Ramstein (234km)

Clicking an asset zooms the map to its location and displays detailed information.

Server-Side Risk Score API

Strategic risk and Country Instability Index (CII) scores are pre-computed server-side rather than calculated in the browser. This eliminates the “cold start” problem where new users would see no data while the system accumulated enough information to generate scores.

How It Works

The GetRiskScores RPC handler (get-risk-scores.ts):

Fetches recent protest/riot/battle/explosion/civilian-violence data from ACLED. While ACLED returns no events (WorldMonitor has no ACLED access), Conflict and Unrest instead read GDELT terms (escalation or sustained level) from gdelt:bulk:country-events:v1.
Fetches auxiliary sources from Redis, including UCDP conflicts, outages, climate, fires, GPS jamming, Iran events, OREF alerts, advisories, displacement, classified news summaries, aviation alerts, earthquakes, sanctions, and military/AIS CII aggregates.
Computes CII v14 scores for 31 Tier-1 countries using the shared coefficient table documented in CII Risk Scoring Methodology.
Derives Strategic Risk from the weighted top 5 CII scores.
Caches results in Redis with versioned live and stale keys tied to the current CII formula version.

CII Score Calculation

Each country’s score combines a static baseline (40%) with a dynamic event score (60%), plus supplemental boosts and floors. Baseline Risk (0-50 points): Static geopolitical risk reflecting structural fragility. The canonical per-country values live in CII Risk Scoring Methodology. Event Score blends four sub-components:

Sub-component	Weight	Scoring
Unrest	25%	ACLED protests/riots, protest fatalities, high-severity unrest, and outage severity; GDELT protest escalation or sustained level while ACLED returns no events
Conflict	30%	Weighted ACLED battles/explosions/civilian violence, fatalities, and OREF alert pressure; GDELT conflict escalation or sustained level while ACLED returns no events. Strikes count through strike pressure on the composite (v12), not here
Security	20%	Foreign military flights and vessels located in the country, aviation closures/delays, and GPS/GNSS jamming
Information	25%	Classified news headlines and country-attributed threat summaries

Floors (minimum score guarantees):

Floor type	Threshold	Trigger
UCDP active war	>= 70	2-year Tier-1 UCDP total deaths > 1000 or event count > 100
UCDP minor conflict	>= 50	2-year Tier-1 UCDP event count > 10 below the war thresholds
Advisory do-not-travel	>= 60	Live advisory feed when present; otherwise embedded State Department fallback table
Advisory reconsider	>= 50	Live advisory feed when present; otherwise embedded State Department fallback table
Strike pressure (v12)	40-70	Decayed strike pressure `P >= 5`: `min(70, 40 + 8 * log2(P / 5))`

Supplemental Boosts: Advisory boost (+15/+10/+5), OREF blend boost for IL (+15 active + history tiers), climate (+15 max), fires (+8 max), displacement (+20 max), news urgency (+5 max), earthquakes (+25 max), sanctions (+14 max), AIS disruptions (+10 max), and strike pressure (+10 max). Advisory outputs expose both advisoryLevel and advisoryProvenance on each CiiScore. advisoryProvenance is live when the score used the seeded advisory feed, fallback when it used the embedded State Department fallback table, and absent when no advisory level affected boosts or floors.

Event Significance Multipliers

Events in some countries carry more global significance than others:

Multiplier	Countries	Rationale
3.0x	North Korea	Any visible unrest is highly unusual
2.0-2.5x	China, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Cuba	Authoritarian states suppress protests
1.5-1.8x	Taiwan, Pakistan, Myanmar, Venezuela, UAE	Regional flashpoints
1.0-1.2x	Mexico, Turkey	Moderate significance
0.5-0.8x	UK, France, Germany, Poland, Ukraine, Syria, Yemen, Israel, India, Brazil	Protests are routine or events already captured by floors
0.3x	US	Very high observability and high-volume domestic reporting require stronger dampening

Strategic Risk Derivation

The composite strategic risk score is computed as a weighted average of the top 5 CII scores:

Weights: [1.0, 0.85, 0.70, 0.55, 0.40] (total: 3.5)
Strategic Risk = (Σ CII[i] × weight[i]) / 3.5 × 0.7 + 15

The top countries contribute most heavily, with diminishing influence for lower-ranked countries.

Data Sources

Source	Redis Key	Used For
ACLED	Fetched live via API	Protests, riots, battles, explosions, civilian violence, fatalities
GDELT country events	`gdelt:bulk:country-events:v1`	Conflict and Unrest escalation against each country’s 28-day median, and the sustained share of its last seven days, only while ACLED returns no events
UCDP	`conflict:ucdp-events:v1`	War/minor conflict floors
Outages	`infra:outages:v1`	Unrest outage boost
Climate	`climate:anomalies:v2`	Climate severity boost
Fires	`wildfire:fires-summary:v1` (per-country rows derived from `wildfire:fires:v1`)	Severity-weighted wildfire boost
GPS Jamming	`intelligence:gpsjam:v2`	Security score
Military CII	Relay/seeded military aggregate	Security score (foreign flights and vessels only since v14) and AIS disruption boost
Aviation Alerts	Seeded aviation disruption data	Security score
Middle East strikes	`conflict:iran-events:v1` (72h) and `conflict:strike-pressure:v1` (30-day tally)	Strike pressure: severity-weighted strikes per day, decayed, into a floor and a boost
GDELT strikes	`gdelt:bulk:country-events:v1` (strike counter)	Strike pressure worldwide while ACLED returns no events
OREF Alerts	`relay:oref:history:v1`	IL conflict boost and blend boost
News Threats	Classified headline summaries	Information score and news urgency boost
Displacement	Humanitarian displacement aggregate	Displacement boost
Earthquakes	Earthquake feed	Earthquake boost
Sanctions	Sanctions country aggregate	Sanctions boost
Security advisories	`intelligence:advisories:v1` plus embedded fallback table	Advisory boost/floor with `advisoryProvenance`

Fallback Behavior

When upstream data is unavailable (API errors, rate limits):

Stale cache: Return the latest versioned stale risk-score payload when available.
Baseline fallback: Return scores using static baselines and available floors when no usable live or stale payload exists.

The RPC exposes the fallback state on GetRiskScoresResponse: stale-cache responses set degraded=true and stale=true; cold baseline-only responses set degraded=true and stale=false. Fresh/cache-hit responses set both flags to false. The relay CII warm-ping loop is active in scripts/ais-relay.cjs: it calls /api/intelligence/v1/get-risk-scores every 8 minutes, lets the RPC handler refresh live/stale cache state, and writes seed-meta:intelligence:risk-scores for health monitoring when scores are returned. That seed-meta recordCount is real-time signal-density coverage, not raw feed availability: it counts the score-relevant Tier-1 conflict (ACLED, UCDP, or a live GDELT baseline while ACLED returns no events) and news signal families present in the CII refresh. Quiet-but-fresh real-time feeds can therefore produce COVERAGE_PARTIAL; source-specific freshness remains the feed-heartbeat view.

​Strategic Risk Overview

​Server Score and Browser Fallback (0-100)

​Risk Levels

​Unified Alert System

​Alert Priority

​Trend Detection

​Pentagon Pizza Index (PizzINT)

​How It Works

​DEFCON-Style Alerting

​World Monitor Tension Pairs

​Backed by endpoints

​World Monitor country-pair tensions

​Evidence beside the scores

​Related Assets

​Asset Types

​Location Inference

​Distance Calculation

​Example Context

​Server-Side Risk Score API

​How It Works

​CII Score Calculation

​Event Significance Multipliers

​Strategic Risk Derivation

​Data Sources

​Fallback Behavior

Strategic Risk Overview

Server Score and Browser Fallback (0-100)

Risk Levels

Unified Alert System

Alert Priority

Trend Detection

Pentagon Pizza Index (PizzINT)

How It Works

DEFCON-Style Alerting

World Monitor Tension Pairs

Backed by endpoints

World Monitor country-pair tensions

Evidence beside the scores

Related Assets

Asset Types

Location Inference

Distance Calculation

Example Context

Server-Side Risk Score API

How It Works

CII Score Calculation

Event Significance Multipliers

Strategic Risk Derivation

Data Sources

Fallback Behavior