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One of the most valuable intelligence signals is when multiple independent data streams converge on the same geographic area. This often precedes significant events.

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How It Works

The system maintains a real-time grid of geographic cells (1° x 1° resolution). Each cell tracks four event types:
Event TypeSourceDetection Method
ProtestsACLED/GDELTDirect geolocation
Military FlightsOpenSkyADS-B position
Naval VesselsAIS streamShip position
EarthquakesUSGSEpicenter location
When 3 or more different event types occur within the same cell during a 24-hour window, a convergence alert is generated.

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Convergence Scoring

type_score = event_types × 25      # Max 100 (4 types)
count_boost = min(25, total_events × 2)
convergence_score = min(100, type_score + count_boost)

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Alert Thresholds

The detector only emits convergence alerts after 3+ distinct event types are present in a cell. The Strategic Risk alert priority layer then classifies the alert using both type diversity and score:
Types ConvergingScore RangeAlert Priority
4 types100Critical
3 types with high event count90-100Critical
3 types with lower event count81-89High
The shared priority helper still has a defensive medium branch for scores >=50, but current detector output does not reach it because emitted alerts must already have at least 3 event types.

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Example Scenarios

Taiwan Strait Buildup
  • Cell: 25°N, 121°E
  • Events: Military flights (3), Naval vessels (2), Protests (1)
  • Score: 75 + 12 = 87
  • Priority: High
  • Signal: “Geographic Convergence (3 types) - military flights, naval vessels, protests”
Middle East Flashpoint
  • Cell: 32°N, 35°E
  • Events: Military flights (5), Protests (8), Earthquake (1)
  • Score: 75 + 25 = 100 (Critical)
  • Priority: Critical
  • Signal: Multiple activity streams converging on region

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Why This Matters

Individual data points are often noise. But when protests break out, military assets reposition, and seismic monitors detect anomalies in the same location simultaneously, it warrants attention, regardless of whether any single source is reporting a crisis.