Bounded crisis tracker

Iran–Israel war tracker

Iran–Israel war: background on the 2025 and 2026 wars, key actors, a sourced timeline, what to watch, and monthly conflict events and fatalities.

This tracker keeps a deliberately narrow geographic boundary: it compares the latest available monthly conflict summaries for Iran and Israel. It does not claim to capture every regional spillover event, diplomatic development, or military movement.

Maintained month snapshot

This page records the committed 2026-10-01 HAPI/HDX country summaries published October 26, 2026. JavaScript can refresh newer values; the numbers above remain available without it.

Source: World Monitor weekly pulse snapshot, October 26, 2026. Combined totals are withheld when covered countries report different reference months.

Background

Israel opened direct war with Iran on 13 June 2025 under the name Operation Rising Lion, striking military sites and the Natanz, Fordo and Isfahan nuclear facilities, according to France 24. US bombers hit the same sites on 21 June; a ceasefire took effect on 24 June, and Iran's health ministry put its civilian toll at 610 killed. Iran's president signed a law on 2 July halting cooperation with the IAEA, and on 28 August France, Germany and the UK triggered the UN 'snapback' mechanism, which returned an arms embargo and nuclear- and missile-related sanctions at the end of September. Sources: France 24 (1, 2), Al Jazeera.

On 28 February 2026 the United States and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran; Iranian state media confirmed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had been killed at his office, and Netanyahu said Revolutionary Guard commanders and senior nuclear officials also died. The Assembly of Experts named his son Mojtaba Khamenei supreme leader on 8 March. A Pakistan-brokered ceasefire halted 40 days of attacks on 8 April, and on 17 June Presidents Trump and Pezeshkian signed the 14-point Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding for 60 days of talks. Al Jazeera reported that it unravelled over wording on the Strait of Hormuz: Trump declared it 'over' on 7 July and it lapsed on 17 August. Sources: France 24, Al Jazeera (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6).

The diplomatic track is stalled. On 9 September 2026 the IAEA Board of Governors voted to refer Iran to the UN Security Council over non-compliance, its first such resolution in 20 years; inspectors have had no access to Iran's three bombed facilities since June 2025, and the agency suspects about 400 kg of highly enriched uranium remains. Al Jazeera reported on 21 October that Qatari- and Pakistani-mediated talks are blocked by the enrichment question. Trump has said the US will not attack Iran before the 3 November midterms, while Netanyahu has repeated a pledge to topple Iran's government ahead of Israel's 27 October election. Sources: Al Jazeera (1, 2, 3, 4).

Key actors

• Mojtaba Khamenei — Named supreme leader by the Assembly of Experts on 8 March 2026 after his father's killing; aged 56, never elected, with deep ties to the IRGC. (Al Jazeera)
• Israeli government under Benjamin Netanyahu — Co-launched the 28 February 2026 war with the US; Netanyahu says toppling Iran's government is key to preventing nuclear weapons. (Al Jazeera)
• United States — Co-belligerent since 28 February 2026; it keeps a naval blockade on Iran's southern ports and at least three carrier strike groups in or heading to the Gulf. (Al Jazeera)
• International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) — UN nuclear watchdog whose board referred Iran to the Security Council on 9 September 2026; it has been barred from Iran's three nuclear facilities since June 2025. (Al Jazeera)
• Pakistan — Mediator of the 8 April ceasefire and the Islamabad memorandum; army chief Asim Munir made his fifth visit to Tehran since April on 20 October 2026. (Al Jazeera)

Timeline

1. June 13, 2025 — Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, with about 200 aircraft striking Iranian military sites and the Natanz, Fordo and Isfahan nuclear facilities. (France 24)
2. September 27, 2025 — UN sanctions lifted under the 2015 nuclear deal returned at midnight after France, Germany and the UK invoked the snapback mechanism. (France 24)
3. February 28, 2026 — The US and Israel began joint strikes on Iran; Iranian state media confirmed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed at his office. (Al Jazeera)
4. April 8, 2026 — A Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire halted 40 days of US-Israeli attacks, with Iran saying Hormuz shipping could resume in coordination with its armed forces. (Al Jazeera)
5. June 17, 2026 — Presidents Trump and Pezeshkian electronically signed the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, extending the ceasefire for 60 days of negotiations on the nuclear programme and sanctions. (Al Jazeera)
6. July 7, 2026 — Trump declared the memorandum 'over' as US strikes on Iran continued; the 60-day window lapsed on 17 August with no deal. (Al Jazeera)
7. September 9, 2026 — The IAEA Board of Governors voted, with Russia, China and Niger against, to refer Iran to the UN Security Council over non-compliance. (Al Jazeera)
8. October 20, 2026 — Pakistan's army chief Asim Munir arrived in Tehran as the US sent an additional carrier to the region and Trump pledged no attack before the 3 November midterms. (Al Jazeera)

What to watch

• Missile and drone alerts over Israel. Iranian retaliation for any renewed strike would first register as sirens across Israel, as in February-April 2026; a resumption ends the current pause. Tracked in the Israel Sirens panel on the live dashboard.
• US carrier strike groups in the Gulf. At least three carrier groups were in or heading to the Gulf in mid-October with another due by late November; arrivals show whether post-midterm strikes are being staged. Tracked in the Force Posture panel on the live dashboard.
• Activity at Natanz, Fordo and Isfahan. The IAEA has had no access to the three bombed sites since June 2025; construction, inspections or strikes there bear directly on the enrichment dispute blocking talks. Tracked in the Intel Feed panel on the live dashboard.
• Strike reports inside Iran. Trump has ruled out US attacks before 3 November; any strike before then breaks that pledge, and one after it confirms the escalation both governments have signalled. Tracked in the Middle East Strikes map layer on the live dashboard.

Background, actors, timeline and watch list last reviewed October 24, 2026 against the linked sources. They are context for the monthly figures above, not part of the HAPI/HDX dataset.

Country readings

2 of the 2 covered countries have a Country Instability Index reading. The highest is Iran at 65 (Elevated), and the lowest is Israel at 50 (Normal). Instability is a live 0-100 stress score; resilience is a structural 0-100 index ranked across countries. Both describe each country as a whole, not this crisis alone, and a country without a reading reflects index coverage, not a statement about risk.

Sources: Country Instability Index published pulse and the country resilience index snapshot used on each country page.

Coverage boundary

Iran (IR), Israel (IL). Events outside this list are not included in the live totals on this page.

Related chokepoint trackers

• Strait of Hormuz tracker

How to read this tracker

Use these monthly country summaries as a bounded pulse, then inspect the dashboard for event-level context, map layers, and other independent signals. The figures are not forecasts and should not be interpreted as a complete casualty or incident ledger. World Monitor's forecasts are graded separately, and that record is published on the forecast accuracy scorecard.

Download: tracker.json. Scope source: World Monitor crisis registry. Maintained metrics: HAPI/HDX humanitarian conflict summaries from the UN OCHA Humanitarian API.

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